Home
Up
comm032700

Co-brand Partnerships

award-5.gif (6517 bytes)

topsite.gif (1668 bytes)

webfifty.gif (6027 bytes)


 
drop_center.gif (2753 bytes)


wpe1.jpg (2095 bytes)


FREE EMAIL
Email Login
Password
New Users Sign Up!
 
MAILING LIST
Sign up for our weekly e-mail newsletter!
Tell Me More!

Enter your e-mail address
subscribe
unsubscribe
NEWS SEARCH
WEB DIRECTORY
WEB SEARCH
 CITY GUIDES
search by:
 WEATHER

Current Weather
Enter Your City, State, or Zipcode:

   

MASTERING
THE TRADE

ORIGINAL, INTERACTIVE SEMINAR ON TRADING USING
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
 

 
EARNINGS ESTIMATES

Enter Symbol

U.S. QUOTES

Enter Symbol:

U.S. CHARTS

Enter Symbol:

TECHNICAL OPINION

Enter Symbol:

CANADIAN CHARTS

Enter Symbol


 SEC FILINGS

Search For:
 

Company Name
Ticker Symbol

 BROKER RESEARCH
Exclusive Broker

Research
Enter Ticker

 

MORNING COMMENTS WEEK OF 3/20/00-3/24/00

 

3/24/00

Wait for a sign, listen to the words, ignore the message, and instead sprint for the record books—an equation that has been the ticket to success for many during the past nine months of Fed tightening, but an equation that also may prove to be the downfall for the many who have grown complacent while ignoring the time tested wisdom of "don’t fight the Fed".

In the short term, however, complacency has the upper hand and to put it bluntly, only an idiot would attempt to stand in the way of a market soaring to new records. In the longer term, however, the odds are the history books will show that those who remembered their history lessons and used the present time to take profits and raise cash were the only ones left standing when the first rays of reality finally poked their head over the not too distant horizon.

For a brief moment earlier this week, our predictions of a tech rally lasting into mid-April began to look a little shaky, but with every technology fund manager from New York to Nunavut sitting on a growing mountain of incoming cash, and with the public’s desire for a perceived guarantee of outsized returns fully intact despite recent market volatility, the outcome was never in doubt.

The NASDAQ’s new economy stocks roared back to life immediately following the Fed’s latest flyswats, and soared for a third straight day today. The recent correction is already a fading memory, and with 5000 once again within arm’s reach, a run to new highs is more likely than not in the coming weeks. As we have said before, the new term is bright but beyond the next month the picture darkens: parabolic chart patterns, historically high valuation levels and soaring complacency leave the market defenseless when the current seasonally strong inflow of funds slows to a trickle and the reality sets in that the anticipated May Fed tightening will not be the last.

The old economy stocks have continued their recovery from last week’s lows as investors rejoice in the misplaced belief that one more �% nudge will be enough to slow an economy driven by consumers who have become accustomed to 25% plus stock market gains. The rejuvenated Dow Industrials for their part, have warmed the heart of many a technician this week with a series of flawless executions: a MACD buy signal on Wednesday, a cross above (and a subsequent successful retest of) the 200-day moving average, and today’s close above the psychologically important 11,000 level.

With all three major averages being pushed higher by an expanding underlying cushion of cash and complacency, the air is growing increasingly thin and the safety net is shrinking, leaving the market defenseless against the three ominous horsemen circling in preparation for battle: head swordsman Alan Greenspan and his two able sidekicks Blind Complacency and Rampant Speculation.

The presence of the top bearing twins Complacency and Speculation suggests that the current rally marks the last fling of a blowoff top before the roof caves in rather than the start of a long lasting next leg up. The signs of building speculative activity, the sort that normally occurs nearer the end than the beginning, are in plain view and increasingly troublesome: from the twin bubbles of Biotech and Internet to the record levels of margin debt and the public’s headlong rush to get on board not miss a beat. Perhaps most worrying in recent months has been the surge of interest in the market’s most speculative and most manipulated sector: the OTC Bulletin Board stocks. Volume on the OTC bulletin board has nearly tripled since the market’s parabolic rise began in earnest last Fall, with 1.2 billion shares changing hands in February—20% more shares than changed hands on the NYSE.

Add to this surge in speculative activity a surge in complacency, and the ingredients for a troubled summer are in place. The market currently believes that this week’s hike and the expected hike in May will accomplish what four previous rate hikes were unable to do: slow the economy to a sustainable pace. The outsized stock market gains enjoyed by consumers in recent years and the wealth effect that has accompanied them, when combined with the growing economic importance of the less interest rate sensitive technology sector, suggests that the Fed will need to sling many more arrows before it achieves its goal of slowing demand—quarter point hikes in the New Era just don’t go as far as they used to in the days when interest-rate sensitive belching smokestack industries led the economy.

 

 

3/23/00

 

3/22/00

 

3/21/00

 

3/20/00

 NO COMMENTARY PUBLISHED

DISCLAIMER

 

 
Search for it at the TulipSearch Open Directory
Investment Bookstore Investment Newsstand Market Mavens Report

TULIPS AND BEARS NETWORK SITES

 

FINANCE
Tulips and Bears
Contrarian Investing.com
Internet Stock Talk
Traders Message Boards
Traders Press Bookstore

NEWS AND INFORMATION
TulipsWeather
Freewarestop.com
TulipsMail
TulipsEspa�ol
TulipSearch
TulipNews
TulipCards
AllMusicSearch.com
City Guides
Travel Center
Bargain Bloodhound

WEBMASTER TOOLS

BecomeAnAffiliate.com
TulipDomains
GoSurfTo
TulipStats
TulipHost...coming soon
TulipTools...coming soon
...coming soon




Questions or Comments? Contact Us

Copyright � 1998-2002 Tulips and Bears LLC.
All Rights Reserved.  Republication of this material,
including posting to message boards or news groups,
without the prior written consent of Tulips and Bears LLC
is strictly prohibited.  'Tulips and Bears' is a registered trademark of Tulips and Bears LLC


Last modified: April 02, 2001

Published By Tulips and Bears LLC